Critic Al’s Football Week 12 Pick ‘Em
Game of the week: Patriots vs. Saints (-3)
Some people have made the comparison between this year’s Saints and the 2007 Patriots, but I’m not ready to make that leap just yet.
First of all, Drew Brees isn’t lighting it up like he did last year. With the way he’s throwing, he’ll finish with a 1,000-fewer passing yards than 2008. And while I agree that New Orleans’ defense is light-years better, I’m bearish on the Saints for the sheer fact that they haven’t proven anything.
Only two of New Orleans’ 10 wins have come against teams that own a .500 record right now. And more importantly, I’m just not ready to elevate Drew Brees to elite status just yet. He hasn’t won enough big games, and that’s Tom Brady’s specialty.
I’m also thinking that Bill Belichick wants to answer for that loss to the Colts, and I think the Patriots will use this game to send a message to the rest of the league that they’re a serious threat to make a run in the playoffs. The Saints will get there too, but I think the Patriots will provide the blueprint on how to beat Brees and company.
With that, let’s get to the other 15 games, starting with the three on Thanksgiving. I’m going to keep it short this week, because like you, I’ve got a turkey to get in the oven.
Green Bay (-11) at Detroit
I like Matt Stafford’s heroics against the Browns, but he’ll have a tough time doing it two weeks in a row. And Aaron Rodgers is doing quite well now that he’s not being sacked eight times a game. Packers take it.
Oakland at Dallas (-14)
I’m not totally convinced Tony Romo can out-play Bruce Gradkowski 10 out of 10 times, but there’s no doubt the ‘Boys are a better team. Dallas wins, but expect their usual Thanksgiving inconsistency to affect them.
New York Giants (-7) at Denver
This one could be solid. The Giants are working their way back into playoff contention, and I think they squash a reeling Denver squad.
Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta (-12)
The Falcons aren’t great or anything, but they should have no problem dusting off the Bucs. Falcons win, and maybe Matt Ryan will start to come around.
Miami (-4) at Buffalo
I can’t believe Ricky Williams is carrying this team, but he’s done it two weeks in a row. I’ll go with the Dolphins here, because I don’t expect Terrell Owens to have another 197-yard day.
Washington at Philly (-10)
Washington kept close with Dallas in an ugly game last week, though Philly is a different beast to handle. I like the Eagles here, just because they pull off the deep pass so well. Oh, and the fact they’re a better team helps too.
Seattle (-3) at St. Louis
Ouch. I hope I won’t be forced to watch this one. Seahawks win, and I expect it to be anything but pretty.
Carolina at New York Jets (-3)
This will be an important one for Mark Sanchez after that disaster against New England. I’ll give him the nod over Carolina, as I think the Panthers’ running backs are banged up just enough to give the Jets a chance.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-14)
It’s not clear if Cedric Benson will play in this one, but I’ll go with the Bengals anyway since they’ll be hungry to go 6-0 in their division. If Brady Quinn can put together another solid game, maybe I’ll give Cleveland a better chance next week.
Indianapolis at Houston
How are the Colts not favored in this one? Houston’s as inconsistent as ever, so I fail to see how they can be considered on Indy’s level. Even if the Texans have the same talent level, Matt Schaub hasn’t proven he can win a big game, and he won’t against Indy. Colts win.”
Kansas City at San Diego (-14)
Well, Kansas City managed to knock off Pittsburgh, so can they make it two in a row? I haven’t seen San Diego thrash anyone lately, so that makes me think this will be a close one. But even if it is, KC probably used up all of its mojo against Pittsburgh, so I’ll go with the Chargers here.
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-4)
Maurice Jones-Drew didn’t get his yards last week, and yet the Jaguars still pulled it off. I’ll go with the hotter team right now, Jags win.
Chicago at Minnesota (-11)
This is one of those games that could save Chicago’s season. The Bears are barely still in the playoff chase, and you can’t underscore how much confidence a victory over the Vikings would bring. I don’t think it happens though, not when Jay Cutler is throwing interceptions at a rate Brett Favre would find embarrassing.
Arizona at Tennessee
Arizona has been solid for several weeks now, but you have to go with the hot hand. Tennessee takes this one, and I’ll be shocked if Chris Johnson doesn’t hit 150 yards again.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
I’d usually call this game a heads-up match up, but it’s hard to say what’ll happen now that Ben Roethlisberger got his bell rung. I’m thinking he’ll play, but Baltimore managed to hang with Indy, which tells me they’re playing good ball right now. Ravens win this one, and if Pittsburgh isn’t careful, they might be in danger of being on the bubble for a Wild Card spot.
Last week: 12-4
Season: 100-59 (.629)
Past Predictions: Week 2 / Week 3 / Week 4 / Week 5 / Week 6 / Week 7 / Week 8 / Week 9 / Week 10 / Week 11
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