Critic Al’s Football Week 11 Pick ‘Em
Game of the Week: Chargers vs. Broncos
Chargers vs. Broncos
What a difference a month can make.
Around Halloween, these Broncos were 6-0, on top of the NFL and looking like champs. But fast forward to mid-November, and they’re looking at a three-game losing streak. And while Denver’s been dropping games to teams like Washington, San Diego has pulled itself out of a 3-3 start to match the Broncos’ record going into Sunday’s AFC West showdown. And if you’re a Broncos fan, this feeling is all too familiar.
Everyone remembers what happened last year. Denver held a 3-game lead in the division before losing three straight to miss the playoffs. It looks like the Broncos managed to repeat that feat at midseason, which still gives them time to regroup and hold off San Diego.
If we look at the first matchup between these teams, Denver’s sack-master Elvis Dumervil and his teammates put lots of pressure on Philip Rivers. Denver’s still applying the pressure in their three-game losing streak, but you have to hate the fact they’re giving up 27 points to three straight opponents. This is the same defense that gave up only 26 points in the first four games.
Finally, add to all of this that Kyle Orton is still dealing with an ankle injury, and it’s hard to like Denver in this one. I’ll take the Chargers.
Now, on to the rest of the picks.
Miami at Carolina (-3)
If there’s one thing about Miami in this Thursday night game, it’s that you never know what you’re getting in any given week. The Dolphins haven’t strung two wins together since early October. And considering that Jake Delhomme hasn’t been terrible lately, I’m going to go with Carolina, for the sheer fact that I like the DeAngelo Williams-Jonathan Stewart duo better than just Ricky Williams.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
I would not want to be facing Indianapolis right now. Those Colts look like they can run the table, so long as Bill Belichick keeps going for it against them on fourth down. The Ravens got a little swagger back by shutting out the Browns, but Baltimore’s offense probably needs to put up 35 points to hang with these Colts. Indy wins.
Washington at Dallas (-11)
It’s hard to know in this one. Dallas was one garbage-time touchdown away from being shut out. But Washington is a mess too, and their only signs of life in the past month was that win over Denver. So in a fairly even match up, I’ll go with Dallas. But I completely expect this game to be terrible.
Cleveland (-9) at Detroit
Well, looks like we have the annual game for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. I think Detroit has an edge here. Matt Stafford is clearly playing better than Brady Quinn, even if he’s not being all that spectacular. Also, if Josh Cribbs misses this game due to his concussion, then Cleveland can forget about its usual special teams touchdown. Detroit wins this battle of the uglies.
San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5)
Both of these squads managed to stop their November slide last week, and really they match up pretty well on paper. Green Bay seems like it has more firepower on offense, and I’ll trust Aaron Rodgers at home over Alex Smith. Packers win.
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5)
Even if Buffalo hadn’t fired its coach this week, I’d go with Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing better ball, and they’ve got the hot hand with Maurice Jones-Drew. So throw in that Buffalo is without a real coach right now, and I’ll take Jacksonville by two touchdowns.
Pittsburgh (-10) at Kansas City
Speaking of turmoil, Kansas City had the deck stacked against it already before Dwayne Bowe was caught cheating. So now the Chiefs are without their leading receiver, which is hardly the recipe for success against the World Champs. Pittsburgh is still slowly gaining steam for the playoffs, but even a half-strength Steelers team could beat Kansas City.
Seattle at Minnesota (-11)
Seattle’s not playing bad ball, but they can’t put up points like Minnesota. Thee are also serious concerns whether the Seahawks can protect Matt Hasselbeck in this game. I think Brett Favre wins this one against his former backup.
Atlanta at New York Giants
Now this is an interesting one. Both of these teams started the year with lots of hype, but they might be fighting each other off for a wildcard spot by the time we’re done with the regular season. It doesn’t bode well for Atlanta that Turner could miss this game, and I’ll take the Giants to win this one.
New Orleans (-11) at Tampa Bay
I wish every game was this easy. Saints by 28. Next!
Arizona (-9) at St. Louis
St. Louis is different from the other 1-8 teams since Steven Jackson keeps them at least somewhat competitive in most weeks. Arizona is finally rounding into form, so I’ll go with the Cardinals in a game that will probably be decided by no more than a TD.
New York Jets at New England (-10)
New England could have shaken up the NFL had they converted that fourth down, or even punted. But they’ll have to settle for lurking in the shadows a little bit longer. Luckily for them, the Jets are a mess right now, what with a weepy Rex Ryan calling all of his mentors to get some advice. I think Bill Belichick takes out his anger on the Jets this week, with New England winning the game and converting about five fourth-downs.
Cincinnati (-9.5) at Oakland
I keep picking against the Bengals in their own division, and it always comes back to bite me. Thank goodness they’re playing the Raiders this week. I’d take Cincinnati in this game even if they had Larry Johnson take snaps at quarterback.
Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago
Talk about two teams that are suffering. Donovan McNabb’s been fine, but it has to hurt Philly’s confidence to see Brian Westbrook go down so often. Even with Philly’s problems aside, at least the Eagles are still a solid big-play offense. I can’t say the Bears are doing anything good right now, besides losing with regularity. Eagles win, and Jay Cutler might just throw four more picks.
Tennessee at Houston (-4.5)
I think this’ll be a good one. Not only will Vince Young be playing in his old town once again, but for once a Titans-Texans game actually means something. The Texans need to keep winning in order to earn a playoff spot, and the Titans are desperate to remain relevant after rattling off three wins in a row. I’ll go with the Texans in this one, but not before Mr. Young pulls a few old tricks out of his hat.
Last week: 8-7
Season: 88-55 (.615)
Past Predictions: Week 2 / Week 3 / Week 4 / Week 5 / Week 6 / Week 7 / Week 8 / Week 9 / Week 10
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